inflation or deflation?

for australia it wouold be worse if it was china..but japan is still a big trading partner..for me.the fall out from fuku is still coming..wait for quarterlies from companies who cant get any product out of japan for IT goods etc..

its not affecting us to much yet..but i also believe fuku is much much worse than they tell us..

any news?....

well shit hasnt gotten any better has it!?

seeker401 wrote:well shit hasnt gotten any better has it!?

sorry, you are still into enology of shit...

saxoforecast on the topic...
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/12/16/slings-and-arrows-of-outrageous-fortune-the-saxo-way/?mod=google_news_blog
ps: nice to see lingua took it all several years ago. it will be more nice, if anybody can share the latest report...

nice link..

Apple’s stock price to halve? An extra week’s bank holiday in Europe to cope with the debt crisis? Or how about Switzerland losing its safe-haven status in 2012?

Well, maybe not. But who can say? Stranger things have happened, after all.

Every year, Saxo Bank takes a look into its crystal ball, a slightly clouded one perhaps, and comes up with a list of 10 outrageous predictions for the following year.

This one is no exception. And some of its outrageous predictions have indeed come true in the past.

Although the Danish online investment bank does admit these events are unlikely to take place, it feels they are still far more likely to happen than the market appreciates.

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, said:

“Our Outrageous Predictions have been prepared in the spirit of encouraging investors to think outside the box and prepare for world-altering events. Should some of the predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change.”

The first outrageous prediction is that the stock of Apple Inc, the investors’ recent darling, halves in value from the 2011 high as it struggles to maintain 55% market share given multiple competitors.

Next, Saxo turns to the European sovereign-debt crisis. The bank suggests the EU Treaty changes are insufficient to prevent the debt crisis returning with a vengeance by mid-year–hardly unpredictable–but this prompts EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday, closing all exchanges and banks for a week, to cope with the hefty losses on the stock markets.

Now to politics. The next U.S. presidential election is due at the end of 2012, and Saxo suggests there is a (small) chance a yet unannounced candidate would win this vote given the widespread disillusionment with the U.S. political system.

Remember H. Ross Perot anyone? The next couple of predictions center around the influence China has on the global economy. Saxo offers the possibility that Chinese policymakers become worried about slowing domestic growth, and thus allow the yuan to decline against the dollar, sending the pair up to 7.0, for a 10% increase.

And this slowing growth has a knock on impact on Australia, with its dependence on mining and natural resources, sending it into recession.

Turning to Switzerland, rather than the Swiss franc being in demand as has been the case for most of 2011, Saxo suggests the Swiss National Bank wins its fight to weaken its currency. It manages to engineer a move in EUR/CHF as high as 1.50 during the year, way above the 1.20 floor it imposed in September.

Similarly, Switzerland loses its safe-haven status, and is replaced by Sweden and Norway, prompting the yields on the two countries’ 10-year government bonds to fall more than 100 basis points below bunds.

Now to the banking industry. Saxo looks at the pressure caused by new capital requirements and regulatory pressure, with banks having to deleverage rapidly. A fire-sale of assets results in more than 50 banks in governments’ hands and several well-known brands out of business.

Lastly, Saxo turns to the world of commodities. It suggests lower oil prices in 2012 could lead to a doubling in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses fall and thus demand rises. Also, the price of CBOT wheat could double as bad weather and speculative investors help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.

Will all this take place?

Certainly not. But one or more? Quite possibly.

cant post the link

so

google


Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Since World War II, inflation--the apparently inexorable rise in the prices of goods and services--has been the bane of central bankers. Economists of various stripes have argued that inflation is the inevitable result of (pick your favorite) the abandonment of metallic monetary standards, a lack of fiscal discipline, shocks to the price of oil and other commodities, struggles over the distribution of income, excessive money creation, self-confirming inflation expectations, an "inflation bias" in the policies of central banks, and still others. Despite widespread "inflation pessimism," however, during the 1980s and 1990s most industrial-country central banks were able to cage, if not entirely tame, the inflation dragon. Although a number of factors converged to make this happy outcome possible, an essential element was the heightened understanding by central bankers and, equally as important, by political leaders and the public at large of the very high costs of allowing the economy to stray too far from price stability.

With inflation rates now quite low in the United States, however, some have expressed concern that we may soon face a new problem--the danger of deflation, or falling prices. That this concern is not purely hypothetical is brought home to us whenever we read newspaper reports about Japan, where what seems to be a relatively moderate deflation--a decline in consumer prices of about 1 percent per year--has been associated with years of painfully slow growth, rising joblessness, and apparently intractable financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors. While it is difficult to sort out cause from effect, the consensus view is that deflation has been an important negative factor in the Japanese slump.

continue reading at the above link..

Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted.

with anybody of the same kind, get your mouth deeply opened...

shania is an activist!!??

where is iceland?

ukraine wrote:where is iceland?

thanx everybody for detailed reply.
http://www.truth-out.org/why-iceland-should-be-news-not/1322327303?fb_ref=.TtIuTfwAEB8.like&fb_source=home_multiline
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2011/08/25/why-iceland-shold-be-in-the-news-but-is-not/

thanks ukraine

check on your masters ruling.... ))))
http://www.managementtoday.co.uk/news/1117010/uk-inflation-down-aaa-rating-threat/